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 Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity

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RebelChris
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PostSubject: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 11:48 am

This has been floating around in my head for awhile now, so I thought I might as well post it and see what everyone's opinion's are. Smile

I've been wondering, are the "rare" figures that we hunt, really that rare, or just rare for us?

Take TolToys MOC's for example. I've heard these are hard to find even in Australia. However, are they really that "rare"? Or is it just because the majority of them have been shipped off to different countries and are in focus collections, that they just "seem" rare?

Same can be said for Lili Ledy's. From the outside looking in, they have a "rare" mystique about them and when they are sold on the open market, usually fetch more than their Kenner counterparts. But does that make them any more "rare" than a Kenner figure? They seem to be showing up with more and more frequency lately, and some guys on these boards seem to have a decent supply available to them whenever they want. So are they just hard to find outside of Mexico? Or are they really that rare?

I could go on and on, but these are a few of the better examples that I could think of. Anyway, I would love to hear some other thoughts on this. Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 11:58 am

I can only speak for Ledy. My collection of loose figures has taken me years to acquire. Finding certain ledys may be OK (still not easy) but finding a near mint to mint ledy is very difficult. I can tell you I have personally been on a hunt for certain ledy figures and accessories for a very long time. I can tell you a ledy road is a very difficult road to be travelling Smile.
Now how about carded? Adolfo can tell you how hard it is to find these. Especially in the condition of AFA 80 or better.

IMO I do believe the rumors to be true on many ledy figures and most carded/sealed carded ledys.

Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 12:08 pm

I think perceived rarity and general popularity always pushes prices above the realms of sanity and many really rare items get let by the wayside.

POTF figures, Blue Snaggletooth, Vinyl Caped Jawas, even DT Lukes - Bundles of them about and the prices have always been higher than most other figures.

However, condition will always come into play and that in turn will turn many items into goldmines, but I definitely think that "popular" figures will always be higher priced and easily sold in our hobby over anything else.

Then again at the end of the day its not a completely bad thing, I would rather people were fighting over POTF figures and Vinyl Jawas than proofs ! Very Happy

I have a cromalin that as far as I know is 1 of 1 but even if it isn't its quite unlikely there is more than a handful out there yet it cost me the same amount as a Vinyl Caped Jawa. And its not character specific, there are many main character prototypes out there for the same price that sometimes just sit around unsold lol

I would however like to know about the production numbers of some of these "rare" items. I think its a VERY good idea to realise that ANY production item can be found , be it in 2 hours , 2 weeks or 2 years of searching, if it was commercially available somewhere then it exists .. Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 2:25 pm

You really can't compare production item rarity to prototype rarity. It's 2 completely different worlds.

Production items that have a perceived rarity such as VC Jawas, (loose)DT Lukes, Blue Snags, carded POTF Yaks, 21bk or Droids Fetts, etc etc, will ALWAYS have an appeal and will always command a premium especially high grade examples. They are all items that are always available with very little hunting, but have a high enough demand, be it driven by hype/status or interest in the history to the line that the item represents, to support the price that may exceed the true rarity of the item. BUT these are all items that you can scan the classifieds or ebay and find anytime you'd like.

Production items that are genuinely rare such as Tri Madines, Vlixen, Carded DT figs,Canadian Utility Belts,Parker multipacks,some 3packs,etc should always command a premium regardless of condition. If there are less than 10 known examples left of a mass produced toy out there, the prices are really all over the place depending on who's looking to buy at the time. Sadly certian truly rare items, that do not have hype behind them do get left to the wayside when they are offered out for sale.

Prototypes, when compared to production are ALL rare. Even the most common pre prodution item is rarer than 99.9% of all production items. I think the problem is that many collectors don't delve into the realm of prototypes because of a misconception that it's a super expensive part of the hobby to indulge in(not saying that it can't be, but it doesn't have to be), keeping it a very finite audience that has genuine interest in owning them. That same finite audience doesn't always have enough $$ handy to buy "everything" when items come up. Which is why you'll see some really fairly priced prototype pieces sitting for a month or 2, and even lowered in price a few times before they sell. Problem is that if you try to wait it out and see if it gets lowered.... you may miss out and never see the item again.


Another issue these days is the false sense of rarity that AFA grading creates..... Really... who gives a shit about the "only AFA 95 MOC ROTJ Klaatu in the world" ? I certianly don't, but sadly the AFA "brand" has created a type of collector that would go nuts for that and pay an insane premium for what essentially is one of the most common MOC's out there.

I'm sure I've raised more questions for discussion than I've answered, but yeah, that's my rant for now....lol

Cheers
Joe
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RebelChris
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 3:56 pm

Those are all good points.

However, I would like to add that condition collecting (as Sacko hinted at above), is a delving a little deeper into the actual rarity of a figure.

Let's use Ledy's for example (as we all love Ledy's Very Happy). Finding a Ledy Squid Head (for example, and just the regular version) in great condition, let's say C-8+ can be a difficult task. But finding the just complete or otherwise, isn't necessarily that difficult. But yet, we seem to accept all Ledy's as "rare", thus driving up the price on them.

Now grant it, I totally understand that there are differences between Lili Ledy and Kenner and that's the fun/unique aspect of collecting them. But do you think people in Mexico really perceive them as being all that "rare" like those of us that live outside of Mexico? I would guess not. Again, just my opinion.

Another case in point is ROTJ 79 backs. Probably a lesser known "rarity" amongst collectors, but not too many people consider them "rare" because they are perceived as just another ROTJ card. However, some can be harder to find than a Blue Snaggletooth, and some would consider him to be "rare". When fact is, you can usually find a Blue Snag without too much effort.
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 6:06 pm

i totally agree with jason on the quest for ledy 100%.i think when we see the term rare we think hard to get item.i think this is true.now if you see the term extremely rare,were talking a mint vlix or dt ben or dt vader.dan. cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeThu Apr 15, 2010 9:27 pm

Good points guys. If you're a mint(or close as possible) collector, rare brings a whole new meaning. I would love to own some proto's or proofs, but the characters/cards I want aren't available and if so, out of my $$$ reach. I would love to own any pre-production fett item. Whether it be any proof, proto's , etc., he commands a premium as you all know.

What I wish I could change is the automatic overbidding on perceived rare figures on ebay. The multiple awesome item rule usually applies. You got one guys selling his whole collection and everyone has a buying frenzy, but if you find some dude selling 1 or 2 figures on the downlow, most people aren't clicking "see seller's other items" and putting them on their watch list, so they go for less. wow, that was off topic.

btw, if you've got a fett pre-production item, shoot me a pm.
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 4:04 am

Another void in "percieved rarity" is that a figure is worth what you want to pay for it, the VC jawa is a prime example, not rare at all but people want it so the price jumps with demand.

Same with ledy figures, people wont touch MIM normally, but rip it off the card and sell it as Ledy Loose and you get more money.

Peoples shaded perceptions and eagerness to get what they want instantly placed a see through rarity tag on perfectly findable items

Andy
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 9:05 am

I bet Mexican sellers love peddling their junk for big $$ Laughing No in all seriousness , collecting anything in good condition is where the rarity and price comes into play.

I think Vintage collecting definitely has its fads and flavours of the month, you see it with Orange haired Lukes, Ledy, Trilogos, Foreign especially Spanish. All hot in recent months and years.

Definitely perceived rarity WINS over actual rarity in many cases, I think a discussion once came up about the Canadian 20 back Fett and his Kenner counterpart, not often (or at least in past years) was it reaching prices or interest that its rarity deserved.

Its all about popularity really!
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 9:19 am

And I have to agree that AFA perceived rarity is a terrible thing.. Like Joe said, a U95 Jabbas goon is still just a Jabbas goon!

The prices are amazing..

I am still looking for a perfect DSD for my loose set but that U90 that sold for like $500 makes me barf! I couldn't justify spending that money on such an unimportant piece..
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 9:32 am

Like ive said, its a see through tag that doesnt appeal to everyone, i mean how much would you guys pay for my removeable rocket fett! i dont see them in many collections but i paid £190.

Its not to everyones taste and a lot of people follow the trends.

The U grade is a perfect example, im not going to start a debate again lol but for someone to pay £700 for a U90 tri fett is laughable thing to me, but maybe not to others.

A figure is worth as much as you are willing to pay as long as your happy.
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 12:21 pm

@RebelChris wrote:
Those are all good points.

However, I would like to add that condition collecting (as Sacko hinted at above), is a delving a little deeper into the actual rarity of a figure.

Let's use Ledy's for example (as we all love Ledy's Very Happy). Finding a Ledy Squid Head (for example, and just the regular version) in great condition, let's say C-8+ can be a difficult task. But finding the just complete or otherwise, isn't necessarily that difficult. But yet, we seem to accept all Ledy's as "rare", thus driving up the price on them.

Now grant it, I totally understand that there are differences between Lili Ledy and Kenner and that's the fun/unique aspect of collecting them. But do you think people in Mexico really perceive them as being all that "rare" like those of us that live outside of Mexico? I would guess not. Again, just my opinion.

Another case in point is ROTJ 79 backs. Probably a lesser known "rarity" amongst collectors, but not too many people consider them "rare" because they are perceived as just another ROTJ card. However, some can be harder to find than a Blue Snaggletooth, and some would consider him to be "rare". When fact is, you can usually find a Blue Snag without too much effort.

I'll definitely agree/confirm that loose Ledys are not particularly rare in Mexico, I've been to conventions there and bulk bins of them(in beat played with condition) are at just about every table, finding them complete and in nice condition (c8+) is definitely a completely different story.
And Plantman, the only recent sale of a LL rem rocket Fett that I have to go by is from Luis, he sold one that he described as perfect, recently for 1k. So a decent (c8+) one should be in the 500 to 700 range.

The example of certian figs on specific cardbacks as rarities is certianly true, but because only completists or focus collectors are going to really put the emphasis on those pieces. Demand for them is contained to a smaller pool of collectors, keeping the avg prices down. Of course when people go head to head on pieces like that it's fun to watch.

I believe it was me discussing the Canadian 20bk Fett on RS, I was mentioning how while there were apx 10% the quantity of Cdn 20bk Fetts made, that proportionatly it doesn't sell for as much as something that rare should, even WITH the Fett factor. (hence the reason I'm not going to sell mine any time soon)

Cheers
Joe
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeFri Apr 16, 2010 6:30 pm

i really cant speak out side my focus

so , here are my most rarest items , trem biker scout

and a meccano sticker boxed offcourse speeder bike, ive actually seen more lili ledy speeder bikes for sale then the meccano stickered one

actually ive seen more bs proofs for sale then meccano stickered speederbikes

so ive you come across one of those two , you should def let me know, Wink
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeSat Apr 17, 2010 4:47 am

Great thread lads its funny how perceived rarity seems to win the day regarding price / desire.

Looking at production items i have seen MOC's that are literally the only known examples to date (and will in reality probably be 1 of less than 5 at the most) out there get overlooked for ultimately pretty common items like the VC Jawa's.

I also think the manufactured rarity that comes from AFA U grading is pretty crazy as well some of the U90 pieces sold for more money that pre-production / prototypes last year!

Joe the AFA U90 DSD that sold for $500 was ridiculous that must work out at 20$ worth of figure and 480$ of sticker and acrylic! The only saving grace is from my observations is that it seems the prices of U90's are falling. Lets just hope the bottom falls out of that destructive collecting pursuit in the coming year.

Give me a truly rare piece any day of the week Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeSat Apr 17, 2010 6:34 pm

so , if you guy's had to decide amongst us tig'ers, what is the rarest item out there

and let's talk about production items , not proofs or proto's what would it be

iam thinking it would be , something uzay or trem , iam i corrct to asume this
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeSat Apr 17, 2010 7:11 pm

Uzay were unlicensed & Model Trem are bootlegs? So I don't really count them as production items. There are a few specific MOCs that exist in very small numbers: the offerless SW 21 back Stormtrooper Dax just 'found', Toltoys ESB 15" Vader ... Lafos' 9 holy grails has a few beauties.
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeSat Apr 17, 2010 7:17 pm

@aussiejames wrote:
Uzay were unlicensed & Model Trem are bootlegs? So I don't really count them as production items. There are a few specific MOCs that exist in very small numbers: the offerless SW 21 back Stormtrooper Dax just 'found', Toltoys ESB 15" Vader ... Lafos' 9 holy grails has a few beauties.

oke sorry bro , the luangage barrier got me this time, what i wanted to say is items that where sold in stores as oppessit to the

proto's , first shot's croms and proofs
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeSat Apr 17, 2010 9:34 pm

My own personal 8D8 tale of perceived over actual rarity (and this is my opinion after 2 years of looking for them!)

PBP 8D8 Trilogo MOC vs Clipper stickered 8D8 Trilogo and the French "Macau" stickered 8D8 Trilogo

All three out there, all three rarer than a standard Trilogo.

Actual physical numbers observed in collections or for sale in 2 years -
PBP = 6 MOC
Clipper = 3 MOC
French Macau = 3 MOC

Now of course there are more out there of each one, but the PBP can command some extreme money, yet of the three hard to find trilogos its the more common to find.

PBP figures have become very popular in the last few years and whilst each of these figures have their own unique characteristics I believe its the quirky nature of the 8D8 *has a cardboard insert in the bubble* and the popularity of PBP figures that has sent this figure into the wanted list rather than the other two.

I always thought the Macau trilogo would be on par with the prices of the PBP until I actually got the chance to buy one and the moment I saw the price I bought it, perhaps I got a deal, perhaps I am the only one who cares tongue but I definitely can conclude that popularity and perceived rarity will win time and time again with most vintage collectors over the real rarity of certain items.

Is the PBP cooler, damn yes! But it is way more plentiful than the other 2! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitimeMon Apr 19, 2010 2:06 pm

I have to agree with Joe. For me personally, PBP is by far the hardest MOC to come by! But that's my narrow focus collecting glasses on! Wink

I think to figure out the rarest figure, we would almost have to have categories. As AJ pointed out above, Uzay is very rare, especially carded. However, there are other bootlegs out there that are FAR rarer. Just ask JoeY!

I do think it would be a fun thing to try and put together though. Just for kicks.

I think we could start with a list like this. And please include Kenner as well as Foreign release.

Star Wars

Empire Strikes Back

Return of the Jedi

Power of the Force

Tri-Logo

Bootleg

That should give us a good starting point. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity   Perceived Rarity vs. Actual Rarity I_icon_minitime

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